Above Da Bridge Weather

I am way behind in blog posts so I am starting with events from oldest to newest since the ski race. The next event that I went to was the MTU winter carnival back on February 12th with my dad and my cousin Chad. Like always, there were many cool sculptures this year, but there seemed to be fewer than other years. During the trip I also got a stomachache, which got worse after eating pizza at the Ambassador (their pizzas are just so good I had to eat). Coupled with the ride back to Ishpeming I felt pretty icky. On the way back we also stopped at the Hilltop restaurant to pick up some sweet rolls. The rolls were going like crazy, one after another, and once you try them you know why. Anyway here are a few pics.

Well here are the pictures  of the ski race you’ve probably been waiting for!

Two weeks ago on Saturday I went with my cousin Chad to help out with radio communications, trash cleanup, and rapid beverage supply at aid station #1 for the Noquemanon Ski Marathon. At around 8AM we headed up towards Deer Lake and reached a trailhead off the side of the road. There were quite a few cars and trucks parked along the road and a few snowmobiles were brought in to carry supplies. Unfortunately we didn’t get to ride the snowmobiles so we had to snowshoe, well actually Chad decided to walk. We had to snowshoe/walk in about a quarter of a mile to the station, where a table and bonfire was set up. Good thing there was a fire or I would’ve froze my butt off!

There were a lot of racers, possibly around 1300. We had to call into the local 2m VHF repeater by radio for each wave of racers that came through as there was the touring group, then the classic, etc. Speaking of radio a rather funny mishap occured. The operator of the sweep snowmobile somehow go the PTT switch stuck in transmit position so far several minutes all you could hear on the radio was the engine. It was also a challange to supply the racers with water and energy drinks. Everyone stood in a long row screaming “WATER!” or “ENERGY DRINK!”. The skiers would fly by and grab the cup, drink it, and then throw it on the ground. As you can imagine there was quite a mess of cups. Bending over to pick up a constant bombardment of cups was not very comfortable so I devised a clever trash pickup device. One of the racers broke a pole and threw it on the ground, so I picked’er up and used it as a trash pickup stick. After while I had a pretty good stack of sticks on the stick and passing racers would look at me funny. It really looked like a walking stick made out of cups. In all apart from a few snow flurries it was a pretty good day. It would have been the perfect day if there was a snowstorm!

Around noon the sweep and the sherif came through and we began to clean up. The sweep snowmobile had a pretty nice mobile 2 meter rig setup, with a radio in the leather handlebar pounch with a antenna mounted on the back. Next snowmobile I get I’ll have to put in a rig like this. After we cleaned up we headed back to the road, packed, and then headed home. This was the first time I have ever worked at this event, and it was pretty fun. Chad and I have signed up to help out with radio communications at the UP 200 sled dog races. This event is coming up pretty quick and should be fun. Even though we will be working night shift there will likely be a lot of snacks which will make up for it.

By the way we also finished the roof of the main igloo. It is about 12ft wide and is tall enough to allow plenty of room to walk around. We have also made a lot of progress on the sled launch. We still have a lot to do though, and with the warmer weather ahead we should make more progress. Stay tuned for photos! Will be heading up to Houghton on Saturday for the MTU winter carnival and snow sculptures. I will likely take photos there too.

Here are some more photos of the event:

Well I have been feeling a lot better and today we were finally able to work on the igloo. It is hard to believe we are more than halfway through winter! This winter hasn’t been too cold or stormy. The pattern has let a lot of cold air flow down into the United States, which is cold for other areas but not for us. The storm track has also been shifted much further to the south and east, a event that was not expected this winter. However, there are strong signals of a major pattern change in the next 8 to 10 days with a southeast ridge builing and troughing over the northwestern U.S. This pattern will favor frequent snowstorms and more warm air intrusions. However, given La Nina conditions and a tendency for the weather pattern to “lock in”, there is a strong chance that the rest of winter will likely much snowier than normal. Even though it will be snowy it dosn’t appear to be too cold. In fact we may have some good thaws. Though as we get into Spring the pattern will linger resulting in cooler and snowier weather when it should be warming.

Ok enough with the weather and now to the igloo. The past few days I have been pushing snow near the faucet and getting it wet. I then throw that snow into a bucket to make “bucket blocks”. Well they aren’t actually blocks, they are more like small pilars. I made about 38 of them and today we started to work on the igloo roof with the blocks.

I also worked on the sled launch ramp.  I watered it down to get it iced as the snow that was piled on the launch was too soft. Now the ramp is hard and it will be easy to get snow to the top of the igloo. Already I can tell this years sled hill will be the tallest and the fastes we have every built. I took a quick test of the half finished ramp with the sled and I picked up some good speed. The ramp is pretty tall and pushing snow up it is like driving up a mountain road. Now the work is getting dangerous as the ramp is about 6 to 8 feet above the driveway and will get about 10 feet high. Thats a straight drop to the driveway below off the side of the ramp.

Last Saturday I went with my cousin Chad to help out with radio communications, trash cleanup, and rapid beverage supply at aid station #1 for the Noquemanon Ski Marathon. At around 8AM we headed up towards Deer Lake and reached a trail. We had to snowshoe in about a quarter of a mile to the station, where a table and bonfire was set up. Good thing there was a fire or I would’ve froze my butt off! In all apart from a few snow flurries it was a pretty good day. It would have been the perfect day if there was a snowstorm! We stayed there until noon when the sweep snowmobile came through then we headed back to Chads to game and eat pizza.

That was pretty much the most eventful day the past few weeks as I havn’t done too much. January has not been good for blogging as I havn’t really did anything due to recovery. It’s now been about 5 weeks since the surgery and I feel much better! I can finally do stuff now. Tomorrow we plan to get the igloo roof done then it’s time to watch the Super Bowl. GO PACK GO! Sorry for no photos as I havn’t really sorted through them and I’m not in the mood right now. I hope to have photos uploaded tomorrow.  Night!

Well thats it for tonight.  Tomorrow I will likely take a trip on the snowmobile or go skiing since I am feeling better. Lots of good powder out there! Have about 15 inches of powder over a icy base around 6 to 8 inches thick. We had about 7 inches of snow Tuesday through last night from lake effect. Overall my forecast was right on for us. I was forecasting 5 to 9 inches of snow for the northcentral U.P. Some areas in the western U.P got around 16 inches of snow which was a lot more than I expected. This was mainly due to the fact the dry air moved out quicker. Here are a few igloo pics from last winter. Stay tuned!

Well, the New Years thaw put a dent into our snowpack, reducing it several inches. The snowpack ranges from 4 to 12 inches deep and is now ice. Snowmobile trail conditions in areas except for the keweenaw peninsula are rather poor. It looks like much of the northern half of the UP will see decent snows this week into the weekend which will repair the trails nicely.

On Wednesday Jeremy came over to help with the igloo while my dad was at work. We got the walls up several feet and made real good progress by piling snow inside the igloo and wetting it down the with garden hose. We then would throw the snow up against a board to curve the walls in. However I came down the a pain in my abdomen. It was a pain that I always used to get during heavy work except for exercise and proper weight training. We decided to quit and after Jeremy left I had dinner. I though I was hungry however the pain didn’t go away this time. In fact, there was a slight lump in the low abdomen which finally went away in the late evening and so did the pain. I thought nothing really of it but was a bit concerned.

Thursday I had no pain and decided to work on the igloo since the warm weather made the snow sticky. I got the walls up another several feet using the board method. However, after the work my abdomen became sore. I told my dad about this and we decided I should get to the doctor on Friday fearing I had a hernia.

When Friday came my pain was much less in the morning and I felt good enough to make some snow blocks, but of course not lift them. Dad was off of work and was able to build the entrance of the igloo. I have to say it will be pretty impressive when finished. The sled launch is already at least 6ft above the driveway with a sharp drop down to the ground below. The sled launch will be about 12 ft above the driveway at it’s highest point when finished as the ramp needs to be heightened to get over the entrance arch and to the top of the igloo. Dad was able to put half of the roof blocks in before it started to rain and he got tired. We decided to finish another day. 

Later I started to feel ill again so we headed to the Teal Lake clinic. After the exam by the doctor it was concluded I did in fact have a hernia, a pretty major one. I would need surgery within a week. I was pretty pissed about it as I knew I would have to wait a month before returning to my normal lifestyle after surgery. After the clinic we stopped at Little Caesars to get a pizza. We then headed to my aunts house to see what was up for new years. After some socialization the pizza became cold and we had to leave.  When we finally did get home the pizza was cold and we had to rewarm it in the oven. After we ate we headed to my aunts to spend new years with my crazy family. Everyone called me “hernia boy” or asked ridiculous questions like “you have a hemorrhoid?!?”. Well, the clock struck 12 and 2011 was looking like another crapy year.

After a uneventful Sunday and about a half day of school on Monday I had to leave for a doctors appointment early Monday afternoon. After a exam by the doctor she said the hernia could wait to be fixed as it didn’t seem large. Well, that was a understatement when I got surgery early Tuesday afternoon.

At 10:00AM we headed to the new Bell Hospital. After changing into the frigid hospital gown (which was a epic fail as I put it on inside out) I was lead to a bed to have IVs administered. The IVs were another fail. Each time the needed hit a vein it would shrink or  the needle would hit a nerve causing me to twitch. If felt like I was being jabbed with a hornet between the electrodes of a stereo capacitor. Finally some guy came in who looked like he had some good experience and he was able to put the IV in through the bend of my arm. For some reason needs don’t hurt there. Couldn’t feel it at all.

Soon I was wheeling into the operating room which looked like a UFO torture chamber. There was some good classic rock on the radio which they soon shut off. The doctors then started putting the sleeping juice into the IV ports and began asking me what I liked to do. This then lead to a conversation about fishing which didn’t last long at all as I then awoke in the recovery room. I was a bit mad for brief moment when I awoke, thinking I had dozed off a bit before surgery and didn’t finish my story. I then saw it was the recovery room and was kinda excited. It was done.

The operation was outpatient so I was able to leave home later after changing and going to the bathroom. The doctor said given the tissue structure of the hernia I had it all my life. It was also a large hernia and could have turned into a emergency easily. Good thing  thing I Got’R'Done!

Well, Looks like I wont be doing any weight lifting or igloo building for a month. Dad will work on the igloo be we will need help! This igloo I huge. It’s at least 12ft wide and will be 6-7ft tall at least. Couldn’t go wider than 12ft because there was not enough room

Well goodnight from the UP! I will likely post a blog entry with the latest igloo pictures soon. Until then, stay tuned!

Where are the big snowstorms? Well, all the storms have split around the upper Great Lakes. Seems that been the trend this year. Us folks east of the Mississippi River and west of the Appalachians just seem to not be getting any major snowstorms this year except for the lake effect belts.

The main culprit is a ridge of high pressure over the north Atlantic creating a trough over the eastern United States. This pattern is favorable for a east coast storm track. When a storm develops, it lifts the trough out of the east and replaces it with a steep ridge of high pressure which forces the next storm back into the Plains. The Plains storm then brings a cold front through and the eastern trough reestablishes itself. Despite of the La Nina and -PDO regime, the AO (Arctic Oscillation) has reached a record low negative deviation around -4. A negative AO usually results in a blocking ridge of high pressure over northern Greenland, which creates troughing over the eastern United States and keeps the Great Lakes in cool and dry weather regime.  However, a negative AO results in the warming of the arctic regions due to high amplitude ridging, so the frigid air cant really build up. Whats left of the cold air is able to flow southward into the eastern United States upstream of the Greenland Ridge. This “cold air” isn’t very cold for us folks in the northern US, but it travels farther south than normal resulting in below normal temps to the south. This pattern has been all too common the past few years. The La Nina and -PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has not been able to reset the pattern as of yet. The NAO and AO continue to stay negative, which does not bode well for snowy winters in the Great Lakes. The current weather pattern resembles a El Nino pattern like we experienced last winter, with mild weather and very little snow.

Why is this weather pattern becoming more common you might ask? Well, there is a correlation between low sunspot counts and a -AO. Many studies can be found all over the net on this correlation, but government agencies have not yet  officially recognized the correlation. We are just exiting one of the greatest solar minimums on record, and consequently the AO has reached record negative deviation. Also, NOAA charts indicate 2010 was the 3rd warmest year on record for the globe. Now I believe global warming is overhyped and some of the forecasting tools and methods may be flawed. However, if the planet is warming then there may be some effect. A theory proposed by climate scientis Judah Cohen http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html is that as the planet warms there is more moisture to condense as the jetstream lifts above the highlands of Eurasia. The result is more snowfall in Siberia. This larger expanse of   creates a dome of cold air that blocks up the jetstream and creates large scale troughing in Siberia. The jetstream becomes slow and amplified, with cold air able to travel further south on land and warm air travels further north from the Ocean, creating a ridge over the north Atlantic. Because the ocean is warmer than the air in the northern latitudes and the flat surface provides less friction, warm air masses move north easier than cold air masses move south over land with more friction.

Will this pattern continue? Who knows. It may be more common but there will be times when it breaks down. Looking ahead into January, the La Nina and -PDO might be able to offset the blocking and, and there are signs that blocking is weakening. The GFS forecasts the AO will go positive which could mean a end to the block. However, the PNA is becoming neutral so that will likely not be a big player in the development of west coast trough all too important for Great Lakes snowstorms. In all, it appears January may be snowier than December as southeast ridge, whic has been absent most of December, begins to build up.

Well It’s that time of the year again when we start to build the igloo. When we get our first snows that stick around, we take that snow and build up a foundation. When we get a nice amount on the ground we start to build up the walls. Today my friend Austin and I worked on building up the walls and the sled launch ramp since I finished the foundation last week. It was a perfect day to work outside with temps in the upper twenties along with alternating periods of sun and freezing drizzle to get the snow a bit more sticky.  The 5 and 1/2 inches of snow we had Tuesday evening into Wednesday really helped with the building process. We had enough snow on the ground to collect a good amount for the igloo without having to travel very far.  Now the logistics of collecting snow in a timely matter is always an obstacle. Scoops were too slow for what we were doing because the igloo is built on a hill. We tried pulling those cheap plastic toboggans behind the snowmobile but it isn’t worth taking the time to fill them up. After that fail we found a ingenious method for collecting snow which really sped up the building process.

When Austin got here we first took the snowmobile to the gravel pit, me being pulled behind on the foam sled for some extreme sledding. After many epic fails that I wish I would have had a helmet cam to record and getting whole snowbanks sprayed into my face by the track we decided to call it quits and headed back home. When we got back to the house we started piling snow around the sides of the foundation to build up the igloo walls. We soon ran out of snow and had to find a quick way to collect more. Scoops were too slow and as mentioned above the tiny sleds were a fail. Austin got the idea to pull a garbage can behind the snowmobile. I though the plan was stupid, but we tried it. Well, just like the snow being sprayed into my face the snow was sprayed into the can by the track as he drove through the yard, filling it quickly. It was a kind of snow “dredging”. After getting the first load I began to use the snow to build up the walls some more and he picked up another load just as I was finished using the snow from the past load. We had a steady stream of snow coming to the igloo now, and after many loads it was getting harder to keep up with the shoveling. That was a good thing.

Soon we had a pretty decent circular wall built up, about 16ft feet in diameter and about 1 foot tall. We then brought in a piece of plywood to hold the snow back and we extended some of the wall segments to around 2ft tall. Doesn’t sound like much, but for a igloo this size that is a lot of snow. Soon the snowmobile ran out of gas because we only had about 1/4th or less a tank today, and there was no more gas in the cans. The snowmobile conveniently ran out of gas on top of the hill, right in the way.

Out of Gas

After that we started work on the sled launch ramp. We pushed snow up the ramp and threw snow from below to make a pile. We got a good start on the ramp which will continue up to the top of the igloo when it is finished, and also will help build up the north facing walls. Afterwards we took the sled down the ramp to pack it down. We are building the sled launch differently this year. Instead of making a ramp and carving it out which takes some time to do, we are going to sled down it after throwing more snow on. The result will be a ramp pre shaped with just a little fine tuning needed when it reaches full incline and height. Of course when we get the launch iced we will need to build banks to keep you from flying off the edge, which my dad is good at building.

In about 3 or so hours we had work done that would have taken me a week to do by myself. You can’t collect snow and build up walls at the same time. We got a good start on the walls and the foundation today, and looking ahead it looks to warm up a bit so we should have some sticky snow to maybe get the roof on! Trends are now for a pretty big snowstorm for the U.P around New Years. That would be great and would be the icing on the cake, or igloo.

Well thats it for today. Stay tuned for updates!

Igloo Wall

Tools

Igloo and Me

Welcome to Above The Bridge Weather! The site is under construction and I hope to get simple forecasts, blog, and link pages sometime this early December. I am currently working on a header and logo right now. My site will provide detailed snowfall and precip maps targeting the Great Lakes Region made by me that I will try to update daily. I will also issue snowday probability maps for the United States, which are maps giving the likelyhood of school being cancelled. My maps will mainly target the Great Lakes area, however if I have time or there is a particularly strong storm I may do national forecasts. I have already built my maps, however more work needs to be done before they can be posted. I will also have a blog, where I hope to post video, pictures, and life stories. I also hope to get a webcam up on the house pointed toward the igloo. Each winter we build giant igloos and I think it will be very neat to have the construction process streaming online. Stay tuned for updates!

I am 15 years of age and live in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan near the mining town of Ishpeming. I like to spend my time outdoors fishing, snowmobiling, camping, biking, and skiing.  I also enjoy studying and predicting the dynamic and wild weather conditions in the northern Great Lakes. Our summers can be hot with severe thunderstorms, and our winters are brutaly cold and snowy. However, usually the weather up here is calm, especially at my house (you will learn over time that storms tend to “split” around my area). I am also a certified Skyward spotter, however I have not reported anything in yet because we just havn’t got any “severe” weather worth reporting! I am also a licensed ham radio operator (callsign KD8OIR). 73 all!